LOUISVILLE, Ky. — In its Hydrologic Outlook for Ohio County and the surrounding area, the National Weather Service in Louisville is warning of the potential for significant rainfall and heavy flooding through mid-January.
According to the NWS, the latest forecasts continue to indicate an increased likelihood of heavy rainfall and flooding issues late this week and into the weekend. A cold front will approach the region Friday and then stall out across the region. A secondary storm system is forecast to develop and then move northeastward along this stalled out front and will bring multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall to the region. Some thunderstorms will also be possible in this setup, which could bring locally higher amounts of rain to some areas.
The latest forecasts still suggest an axis of heavy precipitation will develop over portions of the region. Within this band, 3 to 5 inches of rainfall could occur with locally higher amounts. At this time, there is still considerable uncertainty on where this heavy rainfall axis will set up.
Soil conditions across the region are nearly saturated due to recent rainfall events over the past few weeks. The additional rainfall expected late in the week will likely result in flooding problems developing this weekend. These flooding problems could develop very quickly in some areas. The highest risk of flooding will be in areas that are low-lying and have very poor drainage. In addition, area low water crossings will be under the threat of flooding.
Water levels on area rivers are high and are running above normal winter pool levels. The additional rainfall expected later this week will likely push these rivers higher and some forecast points will go into flood as early as this weekend and then continue next week.
Looking beyond this weekend, the long-range forecasts indicate that several more systems could impact the region next week with additional rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall. Should these heavy rainfall events materialize, there is a high probability that river flooding will become an increasing problem for the remainder of January.